Stock market, oil prices, currencies, and economic analysis
Not Financial Advice
This page provides information and analysis for educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past performance during geopolitical events does not guarantee future results.
The Iran strikes landed after US market close on Friday, meaning the full impact will be felt when markets reopen on Monday. Brent crude oil closed at approximately $74 per barrel on Friday — analysts expect it to gap open between $85 and $105+ depending on the status of Strait of Hormuz shipping and Iran's ability to disrupt Gulf oil flows. The strait handles roughly 20% of global oil supply. Even a partial disruption would send shockwaves through energy markets, with downstream effects on inflation, consumer prices, and central bank policy.
Defence and aerospace stocks are expected to surge significantly on Monday. Lockheed Martin, Raytheon (RTX), Northrop Grumman, and General Dynamics all stand to benefit from increased military spending and munitions replacement orders. Conversely, airlines, travel companies, and Gulf-exposed real estate and construction firms face sharp sell-offs. Dubai-listed stocks are likely to see severe declines when the Dubai Financial Market reopens. European luxury brands and companies with significant Gulf revenue exposure will also face pressure.
Safe-haven assets are expected to rally strongly. Gold, already near all-time highs, could surge past $2,200 per ounce. The US dollar typically strengthens during geopolitical crises as global capital seeks safety, though rising oil prices create counter-pressure through inflation expectations. US Treasury bonds will see strong demand, pushing yields lower. Cryptocurrency markets, which trade 24/7, will provide the first real-time indicator of risk sentiment over the weekend. Historical parallels suggest the initial market reaction will be more severe than the eventual settled outcome, but the timeline for normalisation depends entirely on the military trajectory.
Major oil companies suspend tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz following the outbreak of military conflict. Brent crude closed at $74 Friday but analysts project Monday opening between $85-$110.
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted as major tanker companies announce force majeure. The waterway handles roughly 20% of global oil supply.
S&P 500 futures trading indicates a potential 3-5% drop at Monday's open. Defense stocks surging in after-hours trading while airline and travel stocks plummet on Gulf airspace closures.
Gold prices spiked to an all-time high of $2,800 per ounce in after-hours trading as investors scrambled for safe-haven assets. The US dollar strengthened while emerging market currencies plunged.
OPEC announced an emergency ministerial meeting for Sunday as the Iran crisis threatens to remove up to 4 million barrels per day from global oil supply. Saudi Arabia pledged to stabilize markets.
Cryptocurrency markets surged as investors sought alternatives to traditional markets. Bitcoin crossed $95,000 for the first time while gold-backed tokens saw record trading volumes.
European natural gas futures jumped 18% as traders priced in potential disruptions to Qatar's LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar supplies roughly 25% of Europe's LNG imports.
The Dubai Financial Market announced it will not open for Sunday trading. Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange issued a similar suspension. Combined market capitalization at risk exceeds $800 billion.
Iran's Navy commander warned that the IRIN is prepared to deploy naval mines across the Strait of Hormuz if strikes continue. The 21-mile-wide chokepoint handles 20% of global crude oil transit.
War-risk insurance premiums for tankers and cargo ships transiting the Persian Gulf skyrocketed by 500%. Major insurers at Lloyd's of London placed the entire region in their high-risk exclusion zone.
Asian stock markets opened in freefall as the Iran crisis triggered widespread panic selling. Japan's Nikkei fell 4.2% at open while Hong Kong's Hang Seng tumbled 5.1%.
The world's largest oil tanker operators including Frontline, Euronav, and VLCC declared force majeure on all shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Dozens of fully loaded tankers anchored outside the strait.
Markets are expected to open sharply lower on Monday. S&P 500 futures (trading on Sunday evening) are likely to gap down 3-7% depending on weekend developments. Historical precedent from the 1990 Gulf War shows initial sell-offs of 5-10% followed by recovery within weeks once the military situation stabilised. Expect extreme volatility, circuit breakers may be triggered, and trading halts are possible in the first hour of US trading.
Defence and aerospace stocks (Lockheed Martin, Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, BAE Systems) typically surge 10-25% in the opening days of military conflicts. Oil and gas companies (ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, BP) benefit from higher crude prices. Gold miners and bullion ETFs gain from safe-haven flows. Cybersecurity firms may also benefit given Iran's known cyber capabilities. Shipping companies with non-Gulf routes could see premium pricing.
This page provides information, not financial advice. Historical data shows that panic selling during geopolitical crises often locks in losses that recover within weeks or months. The S&P 500 has recovered from every geopolitical shock in history, though timelines vary. If you are concerned, consider consulting a qualified financial advisor before making portfolio changes. Dollar-cost averaging and maintaining diversification are generally recommended during volatile periods.
During the 1990 Gulf War, the S&P 500 dropped 16% from the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait to the market bottom, then rallied 25% within four months of Operation Desert Storm beginning. The 2003 Iraq War saw an initial 5% dip followed by a multi-year bull market. After the 2020 US assassination of Soleimani, markets dipped briefly before recovering within days. The Iran conflict is potentially more disruptive due to the direct threat to the Strait of Hormuz oil supply.